All-Curl

Expect some run game posts coming up soon, but first a post on one of my all-time favorite plays (though less good now versus the prevalent cover 4 and cover 2 defenses).

This has always been one of my favorite calls versus single-safety teams, and has been around since about the first time Angelo Bertelli threw a spiral.

The play is a horizontal stretch with 5 potential passing lanes stretching 4-under zones. Cover 2 zone with 5 underneath zones is difficult to throw this pass against and cover 4 with the safeties bracketing the curling receivers is also a threat. However, this is still a pass many teams use and will continue to be effective.

The techniques are simple:

12 Yard curl route by the outside receivers. Some teams teach an inside release or various stems or things to do at the top of the route. I still think that the best way to run it is to simply burst hard vertical for 12, selling the go route. Attack the outside hip of the cornerback with off-coverage. This route should be calibrated with steps, to achieve perfect timing.

Versus press coverage take an inside release and then push to 12, and box out your defender.

Flat or shoot routes. See my post about runningback routes . If you are a tight end or a slot receiver you will also take a direct shot to 3 yards, no wider than the numbers. If you are a slot and you have press man, push up the field a couple yards before breaking it out. Otherwise, shoot right away.

Last, the inside control route is a sit route over the ball at 6-8 yards. If a tight-end then it will be at 8, we say 6-8 if it is a slot split out 4-5 yards who must get inside as well.



The QB will take a 5-step drop. The first read is the sit #1, curl #2, and flat #3. If he throws the sit it will be thrown on a rhythm--5-steps and no hitch step. If he throws the curl or the shoot it is 5-steps with a hitch step.

On his pre-snap read he will do his normal scan of the defense: left corner, safeties, right corner, back over the linebackers with eyes on the DL, back to left corner, repeat. He wants to identify the weak safety, the safety structure (1, 2, 3, 4), the mike-linebacker and any potential unblocked rushers.

On his first step off the line he will eye downfield at the safety structure. He doesn't need to think out "oh, it's cover 3" but he should get an idea of where the flow is. Also, keeping his eyes downfield will help hold the defense.

Then he will look at the Mike linebacker (middle linebacker or first linebacker inside Will in a 3-4 look), reading his drop. If he drops straight back or strong, then the QB will work weak (sit, to weakside curl, and shoot).



If he drops weak, then QB progresses strong (sit, strongside curl, shoot/swing).



That is it. Very simple. From there he reads passing lanes. "Do I have a clear lane to throw the ball?" The receivers on the curl routes are looking to make eye-contact. They will naturally find the proper window.


Next I'll briefly touch on a few adjustments one can make to the slot man to help the pass versus some different coverages and provide a different look.

First, versus cover 4 we will send the slot/tight end on a seam or post route to clear out the safety and to open up the lane for the curl.

Normally, the safeties will bracket the curl and there is nowhere to go with the ball.



However, with a post, now there is a passing lane to the strongside.

Next, is when we split out the player running the sit route we will have him run what we call a "shake", which is sort of a square-in/shallow cross. This is something we got from Gary Crowton's Louisiana Tech days. The slot will take a 4-5 yard split from the tackle. Basically he has some freedom to get open, keep running or find a window. He will inside release, push upfield to 5-6 yards. Versus man and he will stick and break flat, versus zone he will hook up, showing his numbers to the QB. He wants to catch it underneath the Mike linebacker.

Controlling the Ball With the Pass - Bill Walsh

Old article from 1979 but still a good one. From the Unofficial Westcoast Offense Site:

Emphasis below is mine--

Controlling the Ball With the Pass
BILL WALSH
former San Francisco 49ers and Stanford Cardinal


My philosophy has been to control the ball with the forward pass. To do that we have to have versatility-versatility in the action and types of passes thrown by the quarterback.

Dropback Passes

We like the dropback pass. We use a three-step drop pattern, but more often we will use a five-step drop pattern of timed patterns down the field. From there we go to a seven-step drop. When our quarterback takes a seven-step drop, he's allowing the receivers time to maneuver down the field. Therefore, we will use a three-step drop pattern when we are throwing a quickout or hitch or slant which, by and large, the defense is allowing you to complete by their alignment or by their coverage.

The five-step drop pattern for the quarterback calls for a disciplined pattern by the receiver. He runs that pattern the same way every time. He doesn't maneuver to beat the defensive back.

Too often in college football, either the quarterback is standing there waiting for the receiver, or the receiver has broken before the quarterback can throw the ball. These are the biggest flaws you will see in the forward pass. Now when the receiver breaks before the ball can be thrown, the defensive back can adjust to the receiver. Any time the quarterback holds the ball waiting for the receiver to break, the defensive back sees it and breaks on the receiver. So the time pattern is vital.

Play-Action Passes

You can't just dropback pass. You have to be able to keep the defense from zeroing in on your approach. That's why the play pass is vital. By and large, the play-action pass will score the touchdown. The dropback pass will control the ball.

For play-action passing, we have certain blocking fundamentals that we use. We will show different backfield actions with basically the same offensive line blocking. We will go to the play pass as often as we can, especially as we get to the opponent's 25-yard line.

...

In Scoring Territory

I have seen many teams march the ball beautifully, but right around the 15-yard line, they are already warming up their placekicker, because right at that point defenses change, the field they can operate in changes, and suddenly their basic offense goes all to pieces.

My contention is that if we are on their 25, we're going for the end zone. Failing at that, we will kick a field goal. In an evenly matched game, I don't want to try to take the ball from their 25 to the goal line by trying to smash it through people, because three out of four times, you won't make it. Unless you are superior. Of course, if you are vastly superior it makes very little difference how you do it.

Why? First, every defensive coach in the country is going to his blitzes about right there. The pass coverage, by and large, will be man-to-man coverage. We know that if they don't blitz one down, they're going to blitz the next down. Automatically. They'll seldom blitz twice in a row but they'll blitz every other down. If we go a series where there haven't been blitzes on the first two downs, here comes the safety blitz on the third down. So we are looking, at that point, to get into the end zone.

By the style of our football, we'll have somebody to get the ball to a little bit late-just as an outlet to get 4 or 5 yards, to try to keep it. But from the 25 to the 10, we're going for the end zone.

...

Short Yardage

We have standard passes to throw against a goalline defense. Too often people try to go in there and butt heads with good linebackers on the goal line. Too often they don't make it.

If we get inside that 5-yard line, half the time we are going to throw the ball. Now, if you're marching through somebody, you can just close your eyes and hand the ball off But when it's very competitive, that goal-line pass is vital. So we have a series of those. We never call them anywhere else on the field.

When we are around their 35-yard line in a short-yardage situation, if we don't see somebody standing deep down the middle, we're probably going to go for the six points.

To make it on third-and-1 we will often throw to a back out of the backfield. Third-and-3 is the toughest of all to make. We have a certain list of runs and a certain list of passes. When we have a third-and-3, we don't grope. We go to it.

QB Mechanics - Good Message Board

Found this on Coach Huey's Xs and Os message board. Lots of great discussions:

QUARTERBACK EXCHANGES

QB/CENTER (Most Important Part Of Every Play)
1.QB Stance – Feet shoulder width or less, weight balanced and on the balls of the feet. Slight bend in the knees and the waist, chest up and butt high. Arms extended, throwing hand on top with thumb of the bottom hand in the groove of the top thumb.
2.Hands should be deep in the Center’s groin with fingers spread. Top hand should apply pressure to the Center (try to lift him up).
3.Keep hands open until ball hits the top hand and go with Center while closing on the ball.
4.Immediately seat the ball (bring it in to the waist) as soon as the QB has the ball in both hands.

QB/RUNNING BACK EXCHANGE (Hand Off)
1.Keep the ball seated until ready to make the handoff.
2.Get the ball as deep to the Running Back as possible
3.Eyes on the pocket while pulling hand near the RB away and giving with the opposite hand. Place the ball firmly in the pocket.
4.Let the RB feel his way through the ball. Pull the hand away as the RB goes by. It is the QB’s responsibility to get the ball in the pocket.
5.On fakes, Pull the ball away with near hand and leave opposite hand for fake.


PASSING TECHNIQUE

PROPER GRIP
1.Thumb and first finger are in an “L” spread at the back tip of the football.
2.Third and fourth fingers are spread out comfortably over the laces of the ball.
3.The football will be held with the fingers. There should be “daylight” between the palm of the hand and the ball.
4.Relaxed grip is better. No “white knuckles”.
5.2 hands on the ball 99.9% of the time.

PRE-PASSING POSITION
1.Ball is chest high under the armpit of the throwing arm.
2.Points of the ball are perpendicular to the ground.
3.Elbows comfortably at your side.
4.Shoulder of non-throwing arm pointing at target.
5.Feet approximately six to eight inches apart, no wider than the armpits, with weight on the balls of the feet.
6.Proper grip with two hands on the ball.
7.Head and eyes looking down field.

THROWING MOTION
1.Shoulders parallel to the ground with the shoulder of the non-throwing arm pointing at the target.
2.Non-throwing hand pushes the ball back to the “coc ked” position by the ear on the side of the throwing hand.
3.Throwing arm elbow will come up above or even with the shoulder and stay high through the throwing motion.
4.Rotate hips back trying to point butt at the target.
5.Ball should now be ear level and the body coc ked and ready to release.
6.Bring the upper body through to get chest pointing at the target. This begins with the non-throwing elbow coming around at the target and then into the back of the QB.
7.Step “past” not “at” the target, (inside of the foot should point to target), so that the hips can rotate completely through. The stride should be short enough so that the ball of the foot hits the ground first, not the heel.
8.Elbow of the throwing arm should come through above the shoulder, about even with the ear.
9.Arm snaps down with the thumb pointing to the ground and the index finger pointing at the target. The index finger will be the last finger to touch the ball.
10.The weight should transfer to the front foot as the ball leaves the hand.
11.On the follow through, weight is on the front foot with shoulders over the toes, throwing hand comes down to the thigh of the front leg, and the shoulder of the throwing arm should rotate through and point at the target.

Read the rest of the thread here.

Also check out the offensive drills thread which you can find here.

Risk and Return in Play Selection

Below is a chart describing the probability (based on a normal distribution) of gaining 10 yards in 3 plays, based on a particular play's expected gain/variance relationship (or three different plays with the same characteristics):



Chart courtesy of reader Brad Eccles.

You can muse on this for some time, but this is accounting for losses, as well. It shows the important relationship between risk and return but also demonstrates--looking at the steep slope for the results on the right hand side of the chart--that average or expected return has a huge effect, implying that higher return rather than conservative playcalling strategies are beneficial, even accounting for risks (standard deviation).

Quick caveats: This is highly abstract, and takes no account of down or distance or position on the field; what may have a low standard deviation or high return in one circumstance may not in another. Also, the standard deviation for higher returns may need to be higher than 20. I still am looking for a large enough set of data to analyze.

Lastly, and this is not a bad thing, is that the assumption of a normal distribution may be off, because I would imagine that returns for a football play are heavily skewed (i.e. in a single play it is more common to gain 30 or 40 yards than it is to lose 30 or 40 yards.). This may also work in the favor of aggressive playcalling, particularly if you can quantify turnover/field position risk.

Excellent Discussion - ChucknDuck - Pass Protection

Excellent discussion from Chucknduck

Highlights:

TAKEN FROM BILL WALSH LECTURE AT 2003 AFCA CONVENTION

“ There should be a better way to protect the passer than we do. One way is to use the “tight end” plus “H” & “RB” as pass protectors. All three of them would check and then release, but you would have a way to pick up eight rushers.

You have eight blockers. You’d have a way to pick up eight people. You have two receivers working against man-to-man coverage. Then as those people checking and then releasing, they would release on patterns that would be open vs. the zone. So you could deal with the zone with your late releases, you could deal with man-to-man with your two best receiving people, but you can protect the passer. Do I suggest that you do that full time? No. But I’d have the ABILITY to do it.”

PPS: I had a young man who played QB for me that played for the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX (1996). He was the starting F/S AND #2 QB (because the regular #2 QB was hurt). He CURRENTLY coaches the secondary with Steelers (his name is Darren Perry). He said that on TWO occasions, Dallas conned the Steeler QB (O'Donnell) into throwing "sight adjustments" that were picked off (BOTH FOR TD'S) that cost them the game!!!!! Cov. 2 disguise behind a zone blitz.

....

EXAMPLE: (DIAGRAM WILL "DISTORT" BUT IT IS A "BASE 3-4"):

--W----B-----B--------S/S
----E-----N-----E--B
----O--O--C--O--O--Y
--H-------Q

----------R

Taking the above diagram for example (Base/Solid protection on left; "BOB" on right);

H checks out off W by releasing AT him;
RB checks out off ILB over RG by releasing AT him
Y checks out off S/S by releasing AT him.

IF all 3 CAME - H & Y would put two fists in the chest of W & S/S on THEIR side of the LOS. If ILB assigned to RB came - RB would take him on IN the LOS with an agressive drive block (like a lead blockier would on an "ISO".).

Playing Pitch and Catch - Spurrier's Favorite Pass Play

Been plenty of boring stuff on the site about statistics and all that mumbo jumbo (hey I like that mumbo jumbo!), so here is a more true-to-form article about some bread and butter: passing offense

Who better to analyze than the Ole' Ball Coach, who will be back this fall at South Carolina? I for one am looking forward to catching some of the other USC games, now that Spurrier is back in coaching.

Despite his lack of success at the Pro level, Spurrier's offense is still one of the most well crafted offenses around. (I still think that Spurrier's lack of success at Washington was for many reasons, and likely it was not purely his offensive scheme as some would like to say. If it was schematic then some of it was due to some of the publicized protection issues, which I have not gotten the opportunity to study on film properly.)

Anyway, if you watch any old Spurrier tapes or if you see them this fall you'll see plenty of post/dig combos, the smash (hitch/corner combo), and the scissors (post and a corner combination), but the play that has always defined Spurrier, at least for me, is his Ralph/Lonnie combo.

Spurrier runs a handful of read routes--nothing like the run and shoot--but this is one that he will run over and over, often on successive plays. In brief it is a play that combines two plays that almost everyone runs into one play: the curl/flat and the corner/flat combination.

For him this is a 7-step drop play that he will commonly run with fake run action in the backfield, usually faking the lead draw. Thus the routes are a bit deeper. However, the same principles can be run at the high school level very easily at a 5 step pass with slightly shorter routes.

The basic theory is that versus cover 3 or off coverage he wants to run a 15 yard curl, and against cover 2 he wants to attack the deep third with a corner route. Below is Ralph/Lonnie drawn up in some common formations.



The read is fairly simple, though, like any other read route, requires lots of repetitions. Spurrier will rep this endlessly--often versus air--using coaches and dummies to help coordinate the reads along with the typical 7 on 7 and one on one drills.

I'll begin with the other receivers first and then finish with the option-route receiver and the QB. Spurrier has traditionally used a FS1, FS2, BS1, etc type system to teach his routes, but this can be integrated with any kind of playcalling system you use.

From a traditional pro-set the backside split end will burst inside for 3 steps, then push upfield to 15 yards and then break for the goalpost versus MOFO (middle of the field open, like cover 0 or 2) and flatten on a square-in versus MOFC (middle of the field closed, like cover 1 or 3).

The running backs will check release to 5 yards over the tackles, or a single back will settle over the ball in the area between the tackles at 5 yards, showing the QB his numbers.

The FS#2 will run a flat route to 4-6 yards. If he is a slot receiver he will push vertical for 3 steps, exaggerating his burst, before breaking to the flat.

The option receiver's rules are as follows:

1) Take normal split. If on the near hash no farther outside than the inside of the numbers.

2) Versus any "off" coverage (3 or loose man) he will simply burst straight off the line at the outside hip of the defender, sell the go, reach to 15 yards and curl back to the QB ("chop, stop, and return" in my terminology), looking for the QB's eyes, finding the window between defenders. There essentially is no read if the corner is playing you way off.

3) Versus "up" or press coverage he will inside release, taking a 3-step inside release, burst to 15 yards. This is the actual read.

The receiver is looking if there is someone deep and to the outside of him (deep 1/3). If there is he will settle at 15 on a curl and look for the QB's eyes. If the defender stays on him, it is man, and he will run his corner at 15, stick his foot, and burst somewhat flatter than 45 degrees.

If the defender lets him go and there is no deep 1/3 defender, he will run his corner route. At 15 yards he sticks his inside foot and breaks to the corner at a 45 degree angle, expecting to catch he ball between 20 and 24 yards downfield. Usually, versus cover 2 another defender--the hash safety--will rotate over and play the receiver heads up if he took an inside release. The receiver will run his corner route off this defender.

4) If you burst straight off the line and the corner comes up or does not move his feet, then immediately inside release for 3 steps and use your read rules: look for the deep outside 1/3 defender. The route may look funny on paper but it will still be effective.

The QB will read the safeties on his drop and should have a good pre-snap read, anticipating what the route will be. He looks down the middle of the field on his first 5 steps, and if the safety(ies) move out of position he can look for the post immediately.

Otherwise the read is option route, to flat, to underneath (backs). On the last two steps of his drop he will look at the deep 1/3, also looking for a deep outside 1/3 defender. His rule is very simple, if there isn't a deep 1/3 defender he will look to throw the ball in the "open grass"--essentially throwing the ball where the defenders aren't and anticipating that his receiver will also get to where the defenders aren't.

If there is a deep 1/3 defender, he should see the curl developing in the same line of vision, and will look through the window looking to deliver the curl route, sticking the ball right on the receiver's numbers.

Included in his read of the "open grass" this includes the flat defender being held short and not dropping back to get in the line of side of the corner or the curl. One of the few good hard and fast rules for QBs is to never throw the ball over a retreating flat defender, be it a cornerback or a linebacker.

It should be noted that Steve's quarterbacks were always very good at going through their progressions; we remember the deep posts, the many curls, the corner routes thrown, but his team's ate the defense up, infuriated defensive coordinators and troubled the linebackers and safeties by consistently finding the check-down and underneath receivers.

Below are diagrams of the play versus Cover 3, Cover 2, and Cover 1 (you can imagine it versus Cover 2-man).

Cover 3

Cover 2

Cover 1


A few more notes on the play:

1) This play is designed versus cover 3 and cover 2. Some good defenses are very good at switching back and forth from these defenses and catching you perennially with curls versus cover 2, corners versus cover 3, and never getting the right call. This play eliminates that, and the corner is a good man to man route versus cover 1 and 2 man. However, the play is not designed for cover 4 a.k.a combo coverage (bracketing by the corner and safety) and, while the post and the corner are often good calls versus cover 0 (all-out man blitz) this may not be the right call because of timing and protection. I'll save cover 4 and ways to defeat it in another article.

2) A very good high school team that I know of uses this play as their go-to play, and they simplify it by always having the option receiver inside release and read the outside coverage. You still get the same curl route you do with the straight stem, but if the deep 1/3 defender shows his intent early they will have the receiver fade his stem back out to the sideline and away from the safety abit, too.

3) Also, this school runs this play as a 5-step drop play where the curl and the corner routes are run at 12 yards rather than 15.

4) Another adjustment that can be made with this play is to make some kind of switch call, switching #1 and #2. In this case it becomes a kind of read smash, but the play and the read for the QB are the exact same. The outside receiver runs a hitch at 5 yards and the inside receiver bursts straight up the field to 12 yards, doing the same outside 1/3 read. Versus a deep 1/3 player he runs the curl, if not he runs a corner either for the open grass in the zone or sticking and breaking away from his man defender.

Below is a diagram of this.



5) Lastly, I didn't cover it (I'm not really the authority since I have always taught a strict progression, though have worked on it with experienced QBs.) but Spurrier teaches a lot of "look-offs." For example to help open up the curl/corner Spurrier's QBs will often look down at the flat during or near the end of their drop to keep the defender short. This has obviously served him well. I have always stressed reading the defense or the appropriate defender (usually free safety or middle linebacker) on the beginning of the drop (1st step in 3 step, 3 steps in 5 step) and then going to a strict 1-2-3 progression for the QB.

However, when I've had experienced QBs who were excellent at reading coverages pre-snap and who quickly got a read on the key defender, they could then use their 2nd, 3rd and sometimes 4th and 5th steps looking at the 2nd or 3rd receiver in the progression before looking back at #1 and then progressing (did I explain that well at all? Haha).

Sharpe Ratio - Part IV - Further Thoughts

For the first three articles in the series see: One, Two, Three.

Expect more to come with charts and discussion as well and some more applications and discussion of the Sharpe ratio in the coming weeks. I've gotten some great feedback so far. First, I'd like to ask if anyone out there has some of your team data, play results, etc, please let me know. I would like to compile some large samples of data, and I'll even do some of the computations for you. I have some different ideas and the more data I can get the better. Whatever level you are--youth, high school, etc. (Hey, even if you're an NFL guy I'll look at your stuff, but if you're an NFL guy I might charge, haha.)

Anyway, here are some further thoughts:

Benchmark values:
When using benchmarks in the earlier discussion I mostly used a "risk-free" play, such as a quarterback sneak. First, it is important to emphasize that any time you are comparing Sharpes they should all have used the same benchmark value. So using different benchmarks when calculating Sharpe ratios for runs and passes is fine if you aren't comparing the two, but if you are, then you must standardize them.

Second, without going into too much detail an interesting point was raised. What if the average gain of the play is less than the yards it would take to get a first down? For example, on 3rd and 10 if you (for whatever reason) could only choose between two plays, both with an average gain of 5 yards. If the first had a Sharpe of 5 (standard deviation of one yard) and the other had a Sharpe of .5 (average 5, standard deviation 10 yards) then the first play has the higher Sharpe, so we say it'd be better.

But you can also be sure of one thing if you choose the first play: you won't be getting the first down. Conversely, play #2 will get a first down about 30% of the time (1-P(Z) where X = 10, mean is 5 and StD is 10). Now this discussion ignores negative plays (the high volatility of the play, especially with the relatively low average imply there might be a lot of them) which may not be worth it, but does bring up an interesting point, which I'll work on in more detail in a later article.

For now though, I make two recommendations. First, is that the appropriate benchmark for plays may be 3.4 yards (or 3.5 for simplicity) since that is the average you need to get a first down in 3 plays. This shouldn't so much affect the results as it affects how you look at them.

When and How to Use the Sharpe - Situational Football
This change, coupled with my recommendation that standard Sharpes (avg yards over the volatility of those results) be limited to your base offense of plays between the 20s and 1st and 2nd down. Football is a situational game but this still affects the majority of your playcalls and the majority of your offense.

For 3rd down, the red zone, and special situations I suggest a quasi-binary approach based on success/failure as discussed in article III.

Note: Only use relevant data when computing Sharpes. If you are calculating Sharpe ratios for your base offense, do not include results from 3rd and 1, backed up on your goal line, etc. The same applies otherwise. If you are evaluating third down plays, the fact that a play gained 12 yards on first down is not relevant.

Data and Play Incidents

There are a few data and input factors that can affect the usefulness of the Sharpe ratio.

Historical Data

Commonly when the Sharpe is discussed for investment there is a distinction made between using historical data (like the past average result of a play) and some kind of predictive value, such as an expected return or expected average for a play's usage. At present I know of no good method or model to predict the result of a play, other than some kind of offhand estimation which is what much of this discussion is meant to replace or augment, so I will stick with historical data.

Since it is historical data, though, there are potential caveats. Most obviously, just because something worked in the past doesn't mean it will in the future, this is something we all learn in football. Things go in trends, personnel changes, defenses change, and we must adapt. Retroactive statistics are never quite able to capture this. I do not think this says "throw out all your statistics" but we all know that things can change, which I think calls for--along with careful analysis and seasoned experience--a continual review of the statistics, tendencies, etc.

Independence

Using data like this (and almost all data in sports) assumes that all plays are independent. Essentially, this just means that everyone in the stadium has no short term memory, so what happened the last play, or what you called, does not affect the next play. This is a helpful assumption when making our computations but is not reality. If two teams were equally proficient at running the draw play, we would expect the passing team to average more yards when they call it than a running team; the defense reacts differently to the two teams. This kind of effect is something I constantly emphasize (see packaging plays), but is lost when using this particular metric.

Closing Notes

Again, I hope there is more to come on the Sharpe as well as other metrics and methods, the response I've gotten has been great. These are just some concerns and thoughts as you begin to expand your usage of the ratio and apply it to different circumstances. As with any statistic, it speaks more to relationships and correlations than to their causes, which is where humans come in. Nevertheless, this can be a very valuable and potent tool.

Slate - Why Doesn't Football have a Bill James? Football and statistics

n 1977, a boiler-room attendant named Bill James revolutionized baseball analysis with a self-published pamphlet called the Baseball Abstract, sweeping conventional wisdom aside with his radical reinterpretation of the statistical record. James' insights, since embraced by the front offices of the Oakland A's, the Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays, should have inspired the serious students of America's other national game, football, to overturn their status quo. But a quarter-century later, nobody has. Why?

For one thing, a football game is several orders of magnitude more complex than a baseball game. For another, nobody has yet determined what the most useful data to collect might be. And finally there's the problem of data points: The 16-game NFL season leaves less stuff to count than Major League Baseball's 162 games.


...

By today's computing standards, Carter's data set was minuscule and his hardware archaic. To run the numbers, he reserved time on Northwestern's IBM 360 mainframe. Processing a half-season query would take 15 or 20 minutes—something today's desktop computers could do in nanoseconds. In one research project, Carter started with the subset of 2,852 first-down plays. For each play, he determined which team scored next and how many points they scored. By averaging the results, he was able to learn the "expected value" of having the ball at different spots on the field.

[Virgil] Carter deduced that the value is negative when the ball is inside a team's own 20-yard line—that is, that the team playing defense will likely score before the one playing offense. Carter and his professor Robert E. Machol co-authored a paper based on his findings, "Operations Research on Football," for a statistical journal. Carter's insight proved prescient: In the 1998 edition of the book The Hidden Game of Football, the statistically savvy authors ran a similar study and came to the same conclusion. The expected value is essentially linear, starting at -2 points at your own goal line, moving to +2 at midfield, and rising to +6 at the opponents' end zone.

...

ust as there are difficulties associated with quantifying individual ability, there are similar problems with analyzing teams. In football, the scoreboard changes strategy far more often and to a greater degree than in baseball. Whereas a baseball team tries to get hits and score runs in essentially the same fashion no matter what the score, if a football team is down by two touchdowns in the second half, they'll often abandon half their offense and rely solely on the pass.

Jim Schwartz knows from experience why most conventional stats make no sense. When he was a coach with Baltimore in 1996, he says, the Ravens were No. 2 in the NFL in passing because they were always behind and desperately heaving the ball to catch up. Schwartz, now the defensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans, studied econometrics at Georgetown University, then earned what he calls a "Ph.D. in footballology" as an assistant coach with the Cleveland Browns under Bill Belichick. Schwartz took the Jamesian initiative to suss out whether certain statistics correlated with winning and was surprised to learn, after studying five years of data, that fumbles were evenly distributed between winning and losing teams. Belichick was incredulous when Schwartz reported his finding. "He was like, 'Good teams don't fumble.' "

When reviewing game film, Schwartz uses a simple grading system: He gives a plus (positive impact), a minus (negative impact), or a zero (no impact) to each player on each play. "You take those and then you can push them into an equation," he says. "You basically have an 11-variable equation and the result is yards gained. Over the season, over 1,000 plays, you can isolate a variable." Schwartz hopes to use his data to make personnel decisions: If a minus play by a defensive lineman costs the team on average more yards than a minus play by a linebacker, then perhaps linemen should be more of a priority in the draft or free agency.

Lots of interesting applications. Read the full article here at Slate. (Which is one of my favorite reads online.)

Jeff Tedford on Quarterbacking

Start with the playbook, which Tedford wants quarterbacks to "learn" rather than memorize - akin to thinking in a foreign language rather than simply memorizing the right sentence for ordering dinner in a restaurant.

"So much of the game is the mental part, being prepared scheme-wise, and understanding the game, and understanding the concepts, so they understand on every play where to throw the football," Tedford says. "It's not memorizing; you find a lot of times that kids will memorize, but they have to understand the whole concept, and the whole field. There's a purpose for everything we do with every position, and they need to understand what that purpose is."

...

As he teaches understanding of the playbook, Tedford begins by drawing diagrams with pencil and paper. From that, he'll move on to the checkers. Across a table from his quarterback, Tedford arranges 11 checkers in a defensive formation, against the quarterback's offense and asks the quarterback to show what's happening - what's the formation, what's the pre-snap read, what's the play call, what are the possibilities out of the formation, what are the protections, what are the routes? "I'll make them say the snap count, the whole thing, and what happened," Tedford says.

I've never used checkers to teach a quarterback, but if Jeff Tedford says something about quarterbacks, I'll listen. Read the full article here.

Homer Smith on naming and Identifying Defenses

One of my favorite articles. This is not to say that all names for defenses are bad, but they are often misleading.

A story I like to tell other coaches when thinking about defenses is to ask them if they have ever taken an art class. If you take an art class you work on "drawing what is actually there," rather than what you think you see. For example, the instructor puts a bicycle and some fruit down. Commonly, what people do to draw this is they look up and see a bicycle, then they look down and scribble away on their papers, hardly looking up. Then they see an apple, and they look down and draw an apple, with the little leaves coming out the top and the stem, rounded, etc. However, what they didn't do is draw the apple that was actually there, or the bicycle that was actually there. The bicycle happened to be laying in an awkward angle, or the front wheel was actually missing half its spokes, or one side of the apple had rotted and gone soft, but they weren't looking for all the details, they just knew they had to draw an apple.

This is commonly the problem when scouting or looking at defenses. "Oh, they were in cover 2" and everyone immediately brings to mind their conception of cover 2. Or, "they are in a 5-2 front" so everyone brings up specific responses, etc. Needless to say even simple things like that the DTs are playing a 4 or a 3 technique, or the safeties are playing the outside routes much harder than the inside routes, etc.

Structurally, Homer Smith goes over some better ways to name and recognize what the defense is doing.

Conventional names for defensive alignments—like Eagle G and Four Across—do not tell you what your plays will face. Certainly, computer analysis will not if it is done after inputting conventional names.

What a given play will face is: (1) either a balanced or an unbalanced alignment, relative to your formation; (2) one defender who can keep himself free of pass routes, fakes, and blocks—an unoccupied defender, the counterpart of the offender who has the ball; (3) a degree of compression of defenders over your frontal blockers, which affects blocking angles; and (4) a reaction to the initial action of the play, which will determine where that unoccupied defender is relative to the ball.

This article is about these four features of defenses.

Balance or Unbalance

Picture your formation. If you have one RB and he is behind the QB, a balanced defense will have either one or three defenders either on or very near the centerline. If you have two RBs behind, a balanced defense will have two or none; if no RBs, the same.

With a blink, after picturing that the defense must have either (a) three or one or (b) two or none, you can verify balance or detect unbalance. In the blink, if the defense is unbalanced, you can weigh the two sides and distinguish between heavy and light.

Do defenses unbalance? Yes. From a hashmark, they will sometimes count the sideline as one-half of a man and go heavy to the field. Also, against unusual formations, they will make mistakes. You need to have plays that can be called at the LOS to get you to light sides.

As a side note, the difference between even (no nose) and odd (nose) is still a very helpful rule of thumb that I use quite a bit (though must be augmented by a more complete understanding). I do not teach a lot of audibles, but nearly every run play we go to the line of scrimmage with we expect the QB to identify the strength and weakness and either "flip it" or "stay in it." We probably would flip 40% of our runs.

The Unoccupied Defender

Best formation? Worst? It depends on where the unoccupied defender is, not upon how many linebackers and linemen there are or on how the defense is identified.

The closer the unoccupied man is, the more important it is for (a) one offender to occupy two defenders, (b) blockers to reach toward a playside and the QB to fake toward the backside, or (c) the QB to be the ball—carrier.

The Degree of Compression

Compression is relative to the number of RBs. Look at six offensive linemen, against seven frontal defenders, with four different backfields.

Obviously, the one arrangement of frontal defenders is not one problem for all four formations. Rather, it is four problems for four different degrees of compression relative to the frontal blockers. Giving one name to one arrangement is what misleads.

It is best to identify defenses by the advantages and disadvantages that they present, especially in blocking angles, for the various plays. It is best not to identify them by pat names.

Out of the other, the fullback can block that defender and, additionally, he can be a threat to break off the block and catch a pass before the QB can be stopped.

Sometimes, spreading receivers are traded 1 for 1 with the defense. In another formation compressed receivers and tight ends may be able to make a block or be in an option relationship, and the backside defenders would not be able to make the play.

The Reaction to the Action

Taking the same defense, a 4-3 with Cover 4 behind it, vs a two tight end two WR formation, we see the difference in reactions. Versus a zone run to one side, the playside safety steps up to block. Versus a draw run with the tight ends releasing to block the safeties see the pass action and retreat back.

The defense, which would commonly have a name, is different problems for different types of backfield actions. It depends on the reaction.

Summary. Conventional names of defenses and computer analysis based on those names can keep you from focusing on what your plays are actually going to face.

You do not have to name defensive alignments. You can simply talk of what the plays will face.

How does it sound to talk that way? You say, for example you you are facing a zone-blocked belly play facing straightaway defenders, or versus gapped defenders, or versus compressed, where there is no way to gain a blocking advantage, even with a great QB fake.

You do not equate the three defenses by identifying, with a name.

Playing is the responsibility of players. Maneuvering for advantages is the responsibility of coaches. In talking about advantages, you do not want to be diverted by the way you name defenses.

Stance and Starts for Receivers

For WRs the proper stance and start is very important.

I always have taught, as the top passing coaches from Bill Walsh to Don Coryell to the Bowden's etc, to put the inside foot up. Some coaches will actually change and do different things but I think this is the best system, and allows more timing with respects to steps as well (in cuts are odd number of steps, out cuts are even).

The receiver will line up facing directly upfield, inside foot up. I teach an upright stance, so toes up on the line or as far up as possible if off the line. The receiver will point their front foot toes forward, and lean forward in an upright manner so that his knee and his chest (we say "toes, knees, and nipples") are all directly aligned over each other; this means that the knee is slightly bent but not too much, and the receiver is leaning slightly forward.

The back foot will be no more than roughly a foot back, sometimes we even say that his toes should be under his butt. The weight should almost entirely on the balls of the front foot--the receiver should be able to lift his back foot off the ground and stay in his stance. We do want the back foot to be firm on the ground, as he will push off his back foot.

The receivers can do what they want with their arms--whatever is comfortable. However, we do teach them to bend their arms slightly and put them in front of their body (if they want to bring them up to their chest that is fine), because in many releases the receivers must use their hands. If the corner is up in tight press man we usually tell them to put their hands up--they know they must use them.

At the snap the receiver will push off the back foot, roll over the front foot, exaggerate the pump of the arms, stay with the forward lean, and not pop up to run straight. If nothing else dip their butts down a bit as they run.

As the receiver runs his route he should have his eyes up. A common mistake for young receivers is to stare at the ground where they are going to make their cuts. The only time they look up or at the DB is if they are running a go route. The great receivers learn to run any route anywhere on the field by feel, and the entire time they are staring the DB in the eyes, whether it is a slant, go, curl, or whatever.

Stance and starts should be practiced every day and you should always remember to have special time during the season (not just your off week) to really work on the little details and fundamentals throughout the season.

Shovel Option (Urban Meyer)

The shotgun options and shovel options have become very popular recently, particularly with Utah Coach Urban meyer taking the job at Florida. Below are some coaching points from J.C. Easton (formerly coach of Raines H.S. and currently semi-pro coach) again from Jerry Campbell's site from this thread here.

Qb takes snap and attacks EMLOS. His aiming point is 2 yds. outside the original alignment of the play side end. IF DE comes upfield to QB, the QB will throw the shuffle pass to the back. The RB's land mark is inside hip of PST. BSG pulls and leads for the RB. If the DE crashes inside following the down block of the PST, the QB keeps and gets his butt upfield! The play side slot receiver takes bucket step and gets in pitch relationship with QB. He looks for pitch!!! This is out of spread gun.

Out of an EMPTY GUN the play works identically. The 3 receiver on the trips side replaces the RB as the guy who gets the shuffle from the QB. On the snap, he runs down the LOS with his land mark the inside hip of the playside tackle. This example features the play being run to the open side, away from the TE who is flexed to about 6 yds.

Here is a video link from the thread from another poster, which is very helpful. Also, below I have shown a couple of (very quick, sorry for the sloppiness) drawings to help show what this looks like.

Running Swing and Shoot routes

Some notes on running some of the most basic routes for RBs (and slots/TEs).

For a basic framework we will look at this as a RB who is either offset (split backs) or in middle set (single-back).

For a swing (also commonly known as a flare route) the RB is looking to control the flats and outflank the defense. In our typical splitback set he is 5 yards deep with his outside foot on splitting the OT. At least 90-95% of the time a RB in my offense is check-releasing rather than free releasing, though he still wants to get out quickly. He will be looking at the LB to his side and for any edge rusher (safety, corner) that may come. He will get a good pre-snap look (is he on his toes or heels?) and take a short read step. If his man isn't coming he will run the swing.

He will turn hard and run directly at the sideline for 4-6 steps, at which time he will turn his shoulder hard, continue running and look back the QB. He will get no wider than the numbers and no farther upfield then the LOS. Many coaches will recognize this as the typical airraid teaching of the swing. We found that their methods for teaching the RBs were so simple and effective, and we had more completions to the RB, as this is not always an easy pass.

For the shoot, the RB will take the same check release/read steps (almost a quick shuffle), then will step with his outside foot for width (unless the OT is just flying out with his DE, in which case he can release inside them). He will take a direct shot for 3 yards deep on the numbers. Upon crossing the LOS he will turn over his outside shoulder to look for the ball.

It is important that the coaches emphasize that this is a straight line and that he doesn't bend the route flat or go upfield and then out.

If the route is being run by a slot receiver or a tight end (the slot will not check release, the tight end or H-back almost always will) he will push to 1-2 yards deep first, pumping the arms fast (to give the illusion of quick upfield movement) and then will head for the numbers for a depth of 3-4, and NO DEEPER.

If a shoot or swing runner reaches the numbers and are so open they can get 10 yards they will shout "BALL" and the QB will immediately throw the ball to them unless someone flashes in front of them. It is important that the receiver understands how important this is because the QB (and subsequently the team) is trusting them to not call for the ball unless they are open.

The Zone Blitz

From the Indy Colts via Coach Bill Mountjoy off Jerry Campbell's football site.

Attacking the Zone Blitz
Bruce Arians
Quarterback Coach, Indianapolis Colts

Every year we all come up with "new" and improved ways to out-attack our opponents. The zone blitz of the 1990s is one such defensive innovation that has created havoc for quarterbacks at all levels. Historically, QBs have been taught to pre-snap read safeties to alert themselves of the potential of a "dog" (LB) or blitz (DB). The difficulty caused by the zone blitz is that effective use of the package does not allow the QB to trust any pre-snap gathering of information by alignment, making him a totally reactive player and essentially putting him on the defensive.

Coaches must have excellent research and prep on what our opponents do by formation, tendencies, and personnel. As we prepare our game plans, our job is to arm the QB with the knowledge necessary to "attack the defense," rather than sit back and be attacked. Providing our QBs with a thorough idea of what coverages an opponent's defense will be in, their intentions, and tendencies in specific situations vs. specific formations, is the key to counter-attacking. The following are some examples of zone dogs and blitzes.

Offenses during the '70s and '80s had the tendency to free release four or five receivers, with the QB responsible for handling a "hot" LB or DB, and with a sight adjustment by a receiver or a built-in quick receiver route. Too often with the use of the zone blitz, the defense is able to trap the "hot" receiver - exposing the quarterback to being hit hard and often.

When an offense free-releases three receivers to the strength of the formation, the defense can create and trap the hot receiver, TE or TB. By showing a two-deep alignment, the QB has no pre-snap read for the two-man blitz or dog. The strong safety (linebacker) takes away the flat-breaking route and the weakside LB runs to the TE look-in route, forcing the QB to throw away the ball or eat it.

Vs. the one-back offense with four free receivers, the Cover two zone dog creates a "hot" one side or the other, with a DL and corner trap on the in- or out-breaking receiver.

Sometimes the best way to beat a new scheme is to look back at the past. That's where being true students of the game comes into play. We need to re-examine the old playbooks of the '60s and review the plays that called for backs and receivers to "check release" - still allowing the QB five potential receivers, but protecting him from seven defenders. These can be very effective vs. the zone blitz.

Offensively, we need to take a look in the past and give the QB protection, then release our five receivers.

Once we protect the QB, we can now exploit the big holes in the zone defense.

All that is left is deploy your receivers in places that are good vs. the dog or blitz, and, also, will work vs. coverage employed. But that's another story. Remember, never lose the attack mode on offense.

Spin Factors in Throwing the Football

Very interesting discussion about "spin factors" when throwing the football. This is something I have intuitively used when calling plays and I'm sure our quarterbacks have done it when picking sides with mirrored routes, but I have never considered it explicitly.

J.C. & Darin: Having worked Dan Henning's QB Camp for 5 summers, he OVER-EMPHASIZED "spin factors" in passing. Since (right handed passer) the ball rotates TOWARDS the right (drifting clockwise) - he stessed OVER-LEADING out breaking cuts to the left, & in-breaking routes to the right (QB would "frame" the area he was overleading the receiver in to between his feet, rather than framing the receiver, since the receiver would be running into the "frame") .

If you read Bill Walsh's techniques, he stresses that he CALLS most outbreaking routes to the left, & most inbreaking routes to the right (because the ball drifts INTO the receiver). He throws "ups" (takeoffs) to the right, so that the ball will drift out near the sidelines, rather than back intoi the playing field (where it could be "picked").

Bart Starr (while playing QB for Lombardi) wrote an EXCELLENT book called "QUARTERBACKING" (maybe the best book written on QB TECHNIQUE). He devotes SEVERAL pages to "spin factors".

Read the entire thread from Jerry Campbell's football site here.